Putin Wants Out

Vladamir Putin is amassing troops around Ukraine. His excuse is security.
Step back for a moment, I believe he is really crying for help.

For decades Putin has built a kleptocracy where all the mechanisms of government are run by his oligarch buddies, kicking profits up to Putin. Over time, this brand of governing has ignored social policy to the extent Russian society is becoming a powder keg. Putin recently faced a heavy media barrage by Alexei Navalny exposing his criminality. Putin’s suppression of Navalny and his media empire, proved Navalny’s point.

Russian military technology is cracking. When the Ukraine left the Soviet Union, much of the advanced technology went with it. Important engine foundries for both trucks and aircraft reside in the Ukraine. Electronics manufacturing and Nuclear technology also went with Ukraine. Russia cannot replace their military hardware. This invasion will come at great cost in man and machine which will collapse the Russian military, which Putin knows.

The biggest test before Putin is the fact that Russia has only one thing to sell — Oil. Putin sees before him two decades in a decarbonizing world. What would sustain his economy if no one buys his oil? He has painted himself into a corner. A diminishing economy in a nation with an unsustainable wealth gap, virtually no social policy, the nation will be ripe for social unrest. Putin has discovered he may no longer be the best man for the job.

Putin is looking for an out. He is approaching 70 and he needs to leave power on a high note. So he is telegraphing this by feinting toward Ukraine. Putin wants to slip into exile with his ill-gotten gains.

The West needs to see this opportunity. The Russian people need a protector, a benefactor while the power vacuum opens up post-Putin. If left to another strong-man take over, Russia will continue to be a security risk to the entire world for decades to come.

The European Union needs to reach out to Putin and offer membership into the European economic union. The Russian state could easily be supported and maintained by a highly organized EU bureaucracy. The People of Russia need to be stabilized while industries are rebuilt and diversified providing good paying jobs, economic and political stability, and the promise of free movement within Europe. The vastness of Russia can also be a great benefit to climate refugees looking for opportunities to build a new life while building a stronger Russian economy.

To the Europeans, inclusion of this resource rich land, ample labor supply, and Pacific ports, annexing Russia would be the best move for humanity.